Quarterly telemetry from the Samuel Adams mothership: fewer barrels leaving the dock, fatter margins on each one, and a light bulb full of booze blinking on the horizon.
The Boston Beer outlook for 2026 got a little thinner on volume and a little richer on margin. In its third-quarter results release on Oct. 22, 2026, The Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) said it now expects full-year depletions and shipments to fall by mid-single digits, the low end of its earlier range. In the same release it raised the low end of its gross margin and earnings-per-share guidance.
Third quarter, by the numbers
The quarter behind the new Boston Beer outlook ended Sept. 26, 2026. The company reported:
- depletions down 5% and shipments down 4.9%, to about 1.8 million barrels;
- net revenue of $520.1 million, down 3.2%;
- gross margin of 51.7%, up 90 basis points year over year;
- GAAP diluted EPS of $4.21 and non-GAAP EPS of $4.37 (the gap is $0.16 a share of litigation expense from a supplier dispute);
- $308.1 million in cash and no debt.
On the earnings call, CEO Jim Koch called the 51.7% the company’s highest quarterly gross margin since 2017. He estimated the combined beer and beyond-beer market fell about 3% in volume in the quarter, so Boston Beer’s 5% depletion decline trailed the category. Declines in Twisted Tea, Truly and Samuel Adams outweighed growth at Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard, the release said.
Boston Beer outlook: what changed in the guidance
Here is the updated Boston Beer outlook for full-year 2026 from the release, next to the previous ranges it replaced:
| Full-year 2026 item | New guidance | Previous guidance |
|---|---|---|
| Depletions and shipments | Down mid-single digits | Down low- to mid-single digits |
| Gross margin (incl. tariffs) | 49% to 50% | 48.5% to 50% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $9.00 to $10.50 | $8.50 to $10.50 |
| Tariff costs | $18M to $22M | $20M to $30M |
| Price increases | 1% to 2% | 1% to 2% |
| Capital spending | $55M to $70M | $60M to $80M |
Interim CFO Matt Murphy said the outlook assumes the 5% depletion trend from the first 42 weeks largely continues into the fourth quarter. He said shipments should run slightly ahead of depletions for the year. Lower tariff costs, helped by a $3 million refund in the third quarter, and productivity savings let the company raise the low end of margin guidance despite softer volume and higher freight costs. Capital spending dropped because some brewery projects slipped into 2027, Murphy said.
Under the revised Boston Beer outlook, advertising, promotional and selling expense is now expected to be about flat, excluding freight. Koch said a Truly campaign tied to the World Cup “did not work,” so that money moved to Twisted Tea, Samuel Adams and Angry Orchard.
The 2027 innovation bets, and a conflict over Sinless
On the call, Koch gave three test brands different status:
- Rally Dog Vodka Ade (5% ABV, 100 calories) launched in four states, is adding seven more and has plans to go national in 2027.
- LYTT Electric Coolers (15% ABV, malt-based, a resealable 6.8-ounce bulb-shaped package) expanded from five states to 18 more and will be available nationally in 2027.
- Sinless Vodka Cocktails “continues in test,” in Koch’s words. Boston Beer’s own March release had already expanded it to 34 markets.
Brewbound‘s Oct. 23 headline, “Get Lytt, Rally & Sin,” groups all three together. The article body was not readable from here, so the Bureau cannot say exactly how Brewbound describes Sinless for 2027. On the call, though, only Rally Dog and LYTT got national 2027 plans, and Sinless was described as still in test. If you see Sinless listed as a full 2027 launch, treat that as a conflict with the transcript until Boston Beer confirms it. Koch also said none of these brands will be significant to 2026 results, which keeps them out of the near-term Boston Beer outlook.
The company plans to give a 2027 Boston Beer outlook with full guidance on its fourth-quarter call in February 2027.
Why craft drinkers might care
Beer itself is the soft spot in the Boston Beer outlook. Koch said traditional beer was down about 3% year to date, while beyond beer grew about 1%. Samuel Adams and Dogfish Head, which joined Boston Beer in the $300 million merger we covered, sit in the shrinking half of the business. Koch did point to better Boston Lager trends over the summer and a new Samuel Adams non-alcoholic Oktoberfest.
The Boston Beer outlook, in alien shorthand: fewer cases, better margins, and a bet that a booze bulb catches fire in 2027. We will check the readings again in February.
Transmission complete. Keep your shipments mid-single and your margins high.
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